Trump Administration Brokered Ceasefire Deal That Ended the Israel-Hamas War and Secured Release of All Remaining Hostages

Details

On October 10, 2025, a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas took effect under President Donald Trump's "Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict," a 20-point framework announced September 29 at a White House press conference alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The agreement secured the release of all 20 remaining living Israeli hostages within 72 hours and established a transitional governance structure for Gaza under a U.S.-chaired "Board of Peace."

The deal was negotiated primarily by Steve Witkoff, Trump's Middle East envoy, and Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law, who described their approach as "deal guys" focused on getting to "yes" first and hashing out details later. The agreement came seven months after the collapse of a Biden administration-brokered ceasefire, during which thousands of additional Palestinians were killed and hostages remained in captivity.

"This is a deal that really should have been made long, long ago," said Amjad Iraqi, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group. "We've known that the parameters of this truce have been on the table for well over a year, if not since the very beginning of the war."

The Scale of Destruction

On October 7, 2023, Hamas militants launched a coordinated attack on southern Israel, breaching the Gaza border fence and massacring civilians in 21 communities. According to the U.S. State Department, approximately 1,200 people were killed—the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust. Militants took 251 hostages back to Gaza, including children, elderly civilians, and soldiers. The attack began with a barrage of 3,000-5,000 rockets launched into Israeli population centers.

As former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert described: "Well over a thousand Israelis were massacred and butchered and beheaded and raped in their living rooms, in their safe rooms, in bedrooms, in their pajamas—children, elderly people, mothers. It couldn't remain without a very robust military reaction."

Israeli Casualties and Defense

Throughout the two-year war, Hamas and other militant groups continued launching rockets at Israeli cities. Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system intercepted approximately 90% of projectiles targeting populated areas, preventing mass civilian casualties. By October 2025, 465 Israeli soldiers had been killed in Gaza operations, with over 5,500 wounded. Including October 7 casualties and other fronts, total IDF deaths exceeded 900.

Palestinian Casualties and Destruction

The scale of Israel's military response was unprecedented. According to the Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor, Israel dropped over 100,000 tons of explosives on Gaza—a strip of land roughly the size of Detroit—more than the combined tonnage dropped on Dresden, Hamburg, and London during World War II. By October 2025, UNOSAT satellite analysis found 81% of all structures in Gaza damaged or destroyed.

The human toll was catastrophic. A Max Planck Institute study estimated conflict-related deaths likely exceeded 100,000 by October 2025. Life expectancy in Gaza fell by 47%—from approximately 75 years to around 40 years—one of the steepest drops ever recorded.

The Debate Over Proportionality

Many observers who initially supported Israel's right to respond came to believe the war had gone too far. Olmert himself, in June 2025, wrote in Haaretz: "What we are doing in Gaza now is a war of devastation: indiscriminate, limitless, cruel and criminal killing of civilians." He noted that former heads of Mossad, Shin Bet, and the IDF had concluded that Hamas "no longer poses a strategic threat to Israel" and called for the war to end.

Israel maintained that Hamas was responsible for civilian casualties by embedding military operations in residential areas, hospitals, and schools—using the population as human shields. The IDF claimed to have killed over 17,000 Hamas fighters, though a leaked Israeli military intelligence database analyzed by +972 Magazine, Local Call, and The Guardian indicated 83% of total deaths were civilians.

Every month the war continued meant thousands more dead on both sides. That is the context for understanding why the failure to implement the January 2025 ceasefire—and the seven-month delay before the October deal—was so consequential.

Background: The Biden Administration Ceasefires

November 2023 Ceasefire

The first ceasefire of the Gaza war was achieved on November 22, 2023, through U.S., Egyptian, and Qatari mediation during the Biden administration. Over seven days, 105 civilian hostages were released—primarily women, children, and elderly people—in exchange for approximately 240 Palestinian prisoners. The ceasefire collapsed on December 1 when Hamas refused to release additional female hostages as agreed.

January 2025 Ceasefire

On January 15, 2025, Israel and Hamas agreed to a three-phase ceasefire proposal. Biden said it followed "the precise contours" of the framework he had proposed in May 2024. The ceasefire took effect January 19—Biden's final day in office.

The agreement was structured in three phases:

Phase 1 (6 weeks): Partial ceasefire, release of some hostages (women, elderly, wounded) in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, Israeli withdrawal from populated areas, surge of humanitarian aid. Negotiations for Phase 2 would begin on day 16 and conclude by week 5.

Phase 2: Full Israeli withdrawal, release of all remaining living hostages (including male soldiers), transition to permanent ceasefire.

Phase 3: Return of remains of deceased hostages, long-term reconstruction plan.

Phase 1 was implemented under the Trump administration from January 19 to March 18, 2025. During this period, 33 Israeli hostages were released (30 living, plus bodies of 3 deceased) and approximately 1,900 Palestinian prisoners were freed. Israeli forces withdrew from populated areas. Humanitarian aid deliveries resumed.

President-elect Trump claimed credit on Truth Social: "This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November."

Why the January Ceasefire Collapsed

Under the agreement, Phase 2 negotiations were supposed to begin on day 16 of the ceasefire and conclude by the fifth week. Phase 2 would have released all remaining living hostages and established a permanent ceasefire. However, Netanyahu reportedly never authorized his team to negotiate Phase 2's core elements. He had reportedly promised his far-right coalition partners he would not implement it.

Instead of pressing Netanyahu to honor the agreement, the Trump administration proposed something different: extending Phase 1 by 50 days (the "Witkoff plan") in exchange for additional hostage releases. This would have kept the ceasefire in place but avoided the permanent settlement that Phase 2 required. Hamas rejected this as a violation of the original agreement, insisting the ceasefire proceed to Phase 2 as planned.

On March 18, 2025, Israel launched surprise airstrikes on Gaza codenamed "Operation Might and Sword," killing more than 400 Palestinians including 263 women and children. The White House said it was consulted and supported Israel's decision. Netanyahu's far-right coalition partner Itamar Ben-Gvir, who had left the government over the January ceasefire, rejoined the coalition after the attacks resumed.

The Trump Administration's October 2025 Deal

Key Players

Steve Witkoff was Trump's Middle East envoy, a New York real estate developer with no prior diplomatic experience but a 40-year friendship with Trump. Arab officials reportedly preferred dealing with Witkoff over Biden administration career diplomats, viewing him as empowered by the president to make decisions.

Jared Kushner was Trump's son-in-law and unpaid adviser, architect of the Abraham Accords during Trump's first term. His private equity firm, Affinity Partners, is almost entirely financed by overseas investors including government wealth funds from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.

Kushner described the approach: "The experience that Steve and I have as deal guys is that you have to understand people. You have to be able to kind of get the bottom line out of them, and then see who do you think is playing games, and how much room do you have to push things?"

He contrasted their method with traditional diplomacy: "A lot of the people who do this are history professors, because they have a lot of experience, or diplomats. It's just different being deal guys—just a different sport."

The September Crisis: Israel Strikes Qatar

On September 9, 2025, Israel struck the headquarters of Hamas's political leadership in Doha, Qatar, as senior figures gathered to consider a U.S. ceasefire proposal. The attack on the territory of a key U.S. ally—which hosts thousands of American troops and had served as primary mediator throughout the war—prompted a furious response from Trump.

"People should understand that Netanyahu, the Israelis, bombed the peacemakers, bombed the negotiating team," Witkoff told CBS's 60 Minutes. "And by the way, it had a metastasizing effect, because the Qataris were critical to the negotiation, as were the Egyptians and the Turks, and we had lost the confidence of the Qataris."

Trump made Netanyahu phone Qatar's prime minister and apologize. "It was the linchpin that got us to the next place," Witkoff said. "It was really, really important that it happened."

The 20-Point Plan

On September 29, 2025, Trump unveiled his plan at the White House with Netanyahu present. Key provisions included: immediate end to war upon agreement; all hostages returned within 72 hours of Israeli withdrawal; Gaza declared a "demilitarized, terror-free zone"; Hamas members granted amnesty if they disarm; full humanitarian aid restored; transitional governance by a technocratic Palestinian committee under a "Board of Peace" chaired by Trump; an International Stabilization Force to deploy; no Israeli annexation of Gaza or forced displacement; and a pathway to potential Palestinian statehood through dialogue.

Trump gave Hamas until October 5 to accept, warning "all hell" would break loose if they refused.

Agreement Reached

On October 3, Hamas agreed to release hostages and hand administration to Palestinian technocrats, though it did not agree to disarm. On October 8, Trump announced both sides had reached agreement. The deal was signed October 9 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer signing for Israel.

When Kushner heard Hamas would begin talks, he was at his Miami mansion. He drove to Witkoff's nearby mansion, where they set up a command center fielding calls from Netanyahu's cabinet and an impatient president. When Israeli officials worried Hamas would reject the deal, Kushner's advice was to focus on the positive: "Steve and I said to Israel, 'We encourage you to be positive as well.' This is a time to be positive."

On October 13, 2025, all 20 remaining living hostages were released in a single day—a marked contrast to the gradual weekly exchanges under the Biden-era agreement. Bodies of 27 of 28 deceased hostages were returned in subsequent days. Trump wept when the hostages visited the White House, Witkoff later recounted: "He pulled me aside... and he said to me, 'This is the greatest day I've ever had in the White House.'"

Phase 2 and the Board of Peace

On January 15, 2026, Witkoff announced the launch of Phase 2, establishing the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), a 15-member technocratic body led by Ali Shaath, a former Palestinian Authority deputy minister. The phase is intended to move "from ceasefire to demilitarization, technocratic governance, and reconstruction."

On January 22, 2026, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Kushner formally inaugurated Trump's Board of Peace and unveiled an ambitious reconstruction vision for Gaza. The presentation featured slides depicting gleaming skyscrapers rising on Gaza's coast and the construction of entirely new cities, requiring at least $25 billion in investment.

"We said, 'Let's plan for catastrophic success,'" Kushner told the gathering. "There is no Plan B."

Under the proposal, Gaza would be rebuilt in phases starting with the south. The city of Rafah—largely razed during Israel's military operations—would be rebuilt in two to three years. Kushner announced a Washington investment conference for the private sector in the coming weeks, acknowledging that moving money into Gaza could be "a little risky" but calling it "amazing investment opportunities."

Right-wing populists President Javier Milei of Argentina and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán of Hungary joined the Board, as did representatives from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. Israel said it would join, though with reservations about the makeup of key committees. However, the Trump administration's expansion of the Board's mandate to other global conflicts provoked controversy. Critics called it an attempt to establish a Trump-dominated alternative to the United Nations. France, Britain, Norway, and Sweden announced they would not join.

Ongoing Challenges

Despite the ceasefire, significant issues remain unresolved.

Nearly 50 House Democrats sent a letter to the White House in December calling on Trump to hold Netanyahu accountable for Israel's "clear violations of the ceasefire." Representatives Mark Pocan (D-WI) and Madeleine Dean (D-PA) wrote that Israel has committed more than 700 ceasefire violations since the agreement was signed, resulting in at least 356 Palestinian deaths and over 900 injuries. They urged Trump to "exert maximum diplomatic pressure on the Israeli government, including by leveraging U.S. assistance."

Hamas has agreed to hand over day-to-day governance of Gaza to the NCAG technocratic committee, but has not agreed to hand over control of security. Leader Khaled Mashaal declared the group will never disarm, calling weapons "the honor and pride of Palestine." Trump acknowledged at Davos that Hamas disarmament remains the central obstacle: "They were born with rifles in their hands. But they have to give up their weapons, and if they don't do that, it's going to be the end of them."

No countries have publicly committed troops to an international stabilization force. Muslim-majority nations refuse to send forces to disarm Hamas, and Israel is skeptical an international force can accomplish the task.

Israel has kept the Rafah border crossing with Egypt all but closed despite agreeing to open it as part of the truce. Israeli authorities say it will remain closed until the body of Border Police Master Sgt. Ran Gvili, 24, is returned—the last hostage whose remains are in Gaza.

Conflict of Interest Questions

Kushner's high-profile involvement has raised ethical questions because of his deep business ties in the region. His private equity firm, Affinity Partners, has received $2 billion from Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund, plus an additional $1.5 billion from the UAE and Qatar.

Daniel Shapiro, who served as U.S. ambassador to Israel during the Obama administration, said it was "fair to ask whether Kushner should be doing diplomacy in countries with which he's also doing business."

On CBS's 60 Minutes, Lesley Stahl pressed Kushner on the billions his company has received from Gulf states while negotiating the deal. "What people call conflicts of interests, Steve and I call experience and trusted relationships that we have throughout the world," Kushner responded. "If Steve and I didn't have these deep relationships, the deal that we were able to help get done, that freed these hostages, would not have occurred."

Former Biden press secretary Jen Psaki criticized the White House defense of Kushner: "His company is only getting literally billions of dollars from them."

Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) said: "In order for the next stage of this agreement to be successful, Jared Kushner needs to stop approaching this issue as a real estate deal and start focusing on political and human rights."

At Davos, Trump approached the development of Gaza as what he called "a real estate person at heart." He said: "It's all about location, and I said, look at this location on the sea, look at this beautiful piece of property, what it could be for so many people." Critics described the presentation as "not anchored in law, nor in facts—just glossy real estate pitch decks dreamt up by Jared Kushner."

Casualty Summary

Palestinian: Over 70,000 killed (likely exceeding 100,000 total conflict-related deaths), nearly 170,000 injured, 92% of residential buildings damaged or destroyed, $55 billion in damage.

Israeli: Approximately 1,200 killed in October 7, 2023 attack, 465 soldiers killed in Gaza operations.

Hostage Release Comparison

Administration	Deal	Hostages Released
Biden	November 2023	105 (7-day ceasefire)
Biden	January 2025	33 (58-day Phase 1)
Trump	October 2025	47 (20 living + bodies)

Total under Biden-era deals: 138
Total under Trump deal: 47

Political Response

Thomas Nides, Biden's ambassador to Israel, said: "He was exceptionally important in Abraham Accords, knows how to manage Bibi and understands the Arab countries. Forget my politics, I'm more than happy to give him as much credit as he deserves."

Jake Sullivan, Biden's national security advisor, said on CNN: "I give credit to President Trump, I give credit to Witkoff and Kushner and Rubio. To get to something like today takes a village, and it takes determination and really hard work, and so I, without question, offer credit for that."

Michael Herzog, former Israeli ambassador to the U.S., said: "I believe Jared played a role in convincing President Trump, together with Steve Witkoff, to come out with this initiative. It was the right timing. Everyone around here didn't give it much chance, but it worked."

Assessment

The October 2025 ceasefire achieved immediate, tangible results: all living hostages returned, active combat operations halted, and humanitarian aid flowing. Trump's willingness to pressure Netanyahu—particularly after the controversial strike on Hamas leadership in Qatar—was decisive in forcing Israel to accept terms its far-right coalition had resisted.

The Leverage Dynamic

A crucial factor in understanding why the January 2025 deal succeeded initially was the transition of power. As commentator Matt Yglesias observed: "It's not that Trump got done what Biden couldn't get done by being willing to use leverage that Biden wouldn't use. Trump got done exactly what Biden was trying to get done, because Trump coming around to Biden's position created incredible leverage over Israel."

The dynamic was straightforward: "As long as Trump was running for president, Netanyahu could say to Biden, 'Fuck with me and my allies will hurt you on Election Day, and we'll get a better deal from Trump.' With Trump saying there is no better deal, Israel was stuck."

Once Trump took office and his envoy Steve Witkoff communicated that there would be no "better deal," Netanyahu's calculus changed—but not in the direction of implementing the existing agreement. Rather than enforcing the Biden deal's Phase 2, the Trump administration acquiesced to Israel's preference to extend Phase 1 on different terms. Hamas rejected this as a violation of the original agreement, and the ceasefire collapsed.

The Question of Timing

The October 2025 deal that returned all remaining hostages came approximately seven months after the collapse of the January ceasefire. During this period, thousands of additional Palestinians were killed and the remaining hostages endured further months of captivity. The terms of the October deal—hostage release in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and Israeli withdrawal—were structurally similar to what Phase 2 of the January agreement would have provided.

The Center for American Progress noted that the Trump administration never pressed Netanyahu to negotiate seriously on Phase 2, and that Netanyahu had reportedly promised far-right coalition members he would not implement it.

What Was Achieved—And What Wasn't

Israel had two stated military objectives: retrieving hostages and destroying Hamas. As Yglesias wrote: "They appear to have achieved neither, even while inflicting extraordinary death and destruction on Gaza's civilians. Even being maximally generous about Israeli targeting, an awful lot of people are dead, and the military objectives secured seem fairly insignificant compared to what could have been obtained in a deal nine or even twelve months ago."

Only eight hostages were rescued by IDF operations throughout the entire war—all living hostages were ultimately retrieved through negotiated exchanges.

"Israeli hawks had two objections to a ceasefire," Yglesias noted. "They didn't want to leave Hamas in power, and they wanted to break the precedent of trading Israeli hostages for large numbers of Palestinian prisoners. They didn't get their way on either."

Nothing Resolved

Despite over two years of fighting, more than 70,000 Palestinian deaths, and the devastation of 92% of Gaza's residential buildings, the fundamental issues of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remain unresolved. Netanyahu continued to refuse endorsing a two-state solution conceptually, even as both the Biden administration and Saudi Arabia pressed him to do so as a condition for regional normalization.

Yglesias's assessment was bleak: "Not only has nothing been resolved, neither side will even avow the abstract desirability of a two-state solution."

The war did achieve the collapse of Iranian regional influence through the weakening of Hezbollah and the fall of Assad in Syria—but these were byproducts rather than objectives of the Gaza campaign. With respect to Gaza itself and the broader Palestinian question, the extraordinary destruction produced no political settlement, no territorial resolution, and no path forward that both parties fully accept.

The Path Forward

The $25 billion reconstruction vision presented at Davos represents the most ambitious plan for Gaza's future since the war began. Whether the "deal guys" approach of getting to "yes" first and hashing out details later can produce lasting peace—or whether it has simply deferred the hard questions—remains to be seen. Hamas has handed over governance but not security control. No international stabilization force has materialized. Key U.S. allies have refused to join the Board of Peace. More than 450 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces since the ceasefire took effect. And one hostage's remains are still in Gaza.

The ceasefire is real, the hostages are home, and for the first time since October 7, 2023, there is a framework for Gaza's future. That is a genuine achievement. But the underlying conflict that produced the war remains as intractable as ever.